Will Organic Traffic and SEO Disappear with the Age of AI?

In a recent turn of events that could significantly reshape the digital landscape, Google’s innovative artificial intelligence powered search engine, Search Generative Experience (SGE), has become a focal point of concern among publishers worldwide. Launched in beta in May last year, SGE has sparked widespread speculation about its potential impact on organic search traffic, with predictions suggesting a decline ranging from 20% to a staggering 60%. This shift threatens to erode digital ad revenues critically, raising alarms across the industry.

Marc McCollum, Executive Vice President of Innovation at Raptive, a company that runs ad sales for popular titles like Half Baked Harvest, MacRumors, and Stereogum, highlights the gravity of the situation. Raptive, which relies heavily on Google Search for organic traffic, could see a 25% decrease in search traffic across its 5,000-publisher network. This downturn is especially pronounced in the travel and family verticals, which could suffer a 29% loss, while the food vertical might experience a 20% reduction.

The potential $2 billion annual loss in ad revenue across the publishing sector has prompted publishers to reconsider their strategies. From retooling SEO approaches to investing in content expertise and diversifying traffic sources, the industry is bracing for change. Gartner VP analyst Nicole Greene advises publishers to diversify revenue streams beyond advertising, exploring paid models and events to connect with consumers more effectively.

SGE, available in over 120 countries, offers responses based on content from across the web. However, not all keywords trigger an SGE response, leading to varied impacts on traffic. For instance, a study of 23 technology websites revealed an overall drop in organic traffic ranging from 18% to 64% after the introduction of SGE. Raptive’s own analysis indicates a nuanced picture, with some keywords generating SGE results that include links to their websites, while others do not.

In response to these challenges, publishers are exploring various strategies to adapt. Some, like The Associated Press, have entered licensing agreements with OpenAI, receiving compensation for their data. Meanwhile, The New York Times has taken legal action against OpenAI and Microsoft for the use of copyrighted content. Others are focusing on diversifying their editorial strategies, leveraging newsletters, subscriptions, and even developing their generative AI chatbots to attract traffic.

Money.com, which derives 40% of its traffic from Google Search, is revamping its website to include content snippets in a question-and-answer format, hoping to improve visibility in SGE. Similarly, publishers are looking into paid search and social ads to maintain traffic levels, with Collective Measures focusing on mid-funnel SGE queries that have not yet been addressed by Google’s AI.

The introduction of SGE represents a significant shift in how users interact with search engines, potentially altering ad placement and impacting Google’s revenue. The long-term effects of SGE on both Google and the broader publishing industry remain to be seen, but one thing is clear: the digital landscape is evolving, and adaptability will be key to navigating these changes. As the industry grapples with these challenges, the future of digital publishing and advertising hangs in the balance, awaiting the next move in this high-stakes game of digital transformation.

Source: Adweek

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